| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w22059 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 22059 |
| Fiscal and Financial Crises | |
| Michael D. Bordo; Christopher M. Meissner | |
| 发表日期 | 2016-03-07 |
| 出版年 | 2016 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Interconnections between banking crises and fiscal crises have a long history. We document the long-run evolution from classic banking panics towards modern banking crises where financial guarantees are associated with crisis resolution. Recent crises feature a feedback loop between bank guarantees and bank holdings of local sovereign debt thereby linking financial to fiscal crises. Earlier examples include the crises in Chile (early 1980s), Japan (1990), Sweden and Finland (1991), and the Asian crisis (1997). We discuss the evolution in economic theorizing on crises since the 1950s, and then provide an overview of the long-run evolution of connections between different types of crises. Next we explore the empirics of financial crises. We discuss the methodological issue of crisis measurement encompassing the definition, dating, and incidence of financial crises. Leading data sets differ markedly in terms of their historical frequency of crises leading to classification uncertainty. There is a range of estimates of output losses from financial crises in the literature, and these are also dependent upon definitions. We find economically significant output losses from various types of crises using a consistent methodology across time and data sets. Predicting crises also remains a challenge. We survey the Early Warnings Indicators literature finding that a broad range of variables are potential predictors. Credit booms have been emphasized recently, but other factors still matter. Finally, we identify a new policy trilemma. Countries can have two of the following three choices: a large financial sector, fiscal bailouts devoted to financial crises, and discretionary fiscal policy aimed at raising demand during the recessions induced by financial crises. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Fiscal Policy ; Financial Economics ; History ; Macroeconomic History |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w22059 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/579732 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Michael D. Bordo,Christopher M. Meissner. Fiscal and Financial Crises. 2016. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w22059.pdf（616KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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