| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w22103 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 22103 |
| Learning from Potentially-Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina | |
| Alberto Cavallo; Guillermo Cruces; Ricardo Perez-Truglia | |
| 发表日期 | 2016-03-21 |
| 出版年 | 2016 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | When forming expectations, households may be influenced by the possibility that the information they receive is biased. In this paper, we study how individuals learn from potentially-biased statistics using data from both a natural and a survey-based experiment obtained during a period of government manipulation of inflation statistics in Argentina (2006-2015). This period is interesting because of the attention to inflation information and the availability of both official and unofficial statistics. Our evidence suggests that rather than ignoring biased statistics or navively taking them at face value, households react in a sophisticated way, as predicted by a Bayesian learning model, effectively de-biasing the official data to extract all its useful content. We also find evidence of an asymmetric reaction to inflation signals, with expectations changing more when the inflation rate rises than when it falls. These results are useful for understanding the formation of inflation expectations in less extreme contexts than Argentina, such as the United States and Europe, where experts may agree that statistics are unbiased but households do not. |
| 主题 | Econometrics ; Data Collection ; Experimental Design ; Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; Monetary Policy |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w22103 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/579777 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Alberto Cavallo,Guillermo Cruces,Ricardo Perez-Truglia. Learning from Potentially-Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina. 2016. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w22103.pdf（455KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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