G2TT
来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w22103
来源IDWorking Paper 22103
Learning from Potentially-Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina
Alberto Cavallo; Guillermo Cruces; Ricardo Perez-Truglia
发表日期2016-03-21
出版年2016
语种英语
摘要When forming expectations, households may be influenced by the possibility that the information they receive is biased. In this paper, we study how individuals learn from potentially-biased statistics using data from both a natural and a survey-based experiment obtained during a period of government manipulation of inflation statistics in Argentina (2006-2015). This period is interesting because of the attention to inflation information and the availability of both official and unofficial statistics. Our evidence suggests that rather than ignoring biased statistics or navively taking them at face value, households react in a sophisticated way, as predicted by a Bayesian learning model, effectively de-biasing the official data to extract all its useful content. We also find evidence of an asymmetric reaction to inflation signals, with expectations changing more when the inflation rate rises than when it falls. These results are useful for understanding the formation of inflation expectations in less extreme contexts than Argentina, such as the United States and Europe, where experts may agree that statistics are unbiased but households do not.
主题Econometrics ; Data Collection ; Experimental Design ; Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; Monetary Policy
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w22103
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/579777
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Alberto Cavallo,Guillermo Cruces,Ricardo Perez-Truglia. Learning from Potentially-Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina. 2016.
条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小 资源类型 版本类型 开放类型 使用许可
w22103.pdf(455KB)智库出版物 限制开放CC BY-NC-SA浏览
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[Alberto Cavallo]的文章
[Guillermo Cruces]的文章
[Ricardo Perez-Truglia]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[Alberto Cavallo]的文章
[Guillermo Cruces]的文章
[Ricardo Perez-Truglia]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[Alberto Cavallo]的文章
[Guillermo Cruces]的文章
[Ricardo Perez-Truglia]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享
文件名: w22103.pdf
格式: Adobe PDF
此文件暂不支持浏览

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。