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来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w22255
来源IDWorking Paper 22255
Using a Free Permit Rule to Forecast the Marginal Abatement Cost of Proposed Climate Policy
Kyle C. Meng
发表日期2016-05-16
出版年2016
语种英语
摘要This paper develops a method for forecasting the marginal abatement cost (MAC) of climate policy using three features of the failed Waxman-Markey bill. First, the MAC is revealed by the price of traded permits. Second, the permit price is estimated using a regression discontinuity design (RDD) comparing stock returns of firms on either side of the policy’s free permit cutoff rule. Third, because Waxman-Markey was never implemented, I extend the RDD approach to incorporate prediction market prices which normalize estimates by policy realization probabilities. A final bounding analysis recovers a MAC range of $5 to $19 per ton CO2e.
主题Financial Economics ; Financial Markets ; Environmental and Resource Economics ; Environment
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w22255
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/579926
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GB/T 7714
Kyle C. Meng. Using a Free Permit Rule to Forecast the Marginal Abatement Cost of Proposed Climate Policy. 2016.
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