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来源类型 | Working Paper |
规范类型 | 报告 |
DOI | 10.3386/w22255 |
来源ID | Working Paper 22255 |
Using a Free Permit Rule to Forecast the Marginal Abatement Cost of Proposed Climate Policy | |
Kyle C. Meng | |
发表日期 | 2016-05-16 |
出版年 | 2016 |
语种 | 英语 |
摘要 | This paper develops a method for forecasting the marginal abatement cost (MAC) of climate policy using three features of the failed Waxman-Markey bill. First, the MAC is revealed by the price of traded permits. Second, the permit price is estimated using a regression discontinuity design (RDD) comparing stock returns of firms on either side of the policy’s free permit cutoff rule. Third, because Waxman-Markey was never implemented, I extend the RDD approach to incorporate prediction market prices which normalize estimates by policy realization probabilities. A final bounding analysis recovers a MAC range of $5 to $19 per ton CO2e. |
主题 | Financial Economics ; Financial Markets ; Environmental and Resource Economics ; Environment |
URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w22255 |
来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
引用统计 | |
资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/579926 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kyle C. Meng. Using a Free Permit Rule to Forecast the Marginal Abatement Cost of Proposed Climate Policy. 2016. |
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文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
w22255.pdf(1114KB) | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 |
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