| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w22275 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 22275 |
| Is the Macroeconomy Locally Unstable and Why Should We Care? | |
| Paul Beaudry; Dana Galizia; Franck Portier | |
| 发表日期 | 2016-05-23 |
| 出版年 | 2016 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | In most modern macroeconomic models, the steady state (or balanced growth path) of the system is a local attractor, in the sense that, in the absence of shocks, the economy would converge to the steady state. In this paper, we examine whether the time series behavior of macroeconomic aggregates (especially labor market aggregates) is in fact supportive of this local-stability view of macroeconomic dynamics, or if it instead favors an alternative interpretation in which the macroeconomy may be better characterized as being locally unstable, with nonlinear deterministic forces capable of producing endogenous cyclical behavior. To do this, we extend a standard AR representation of the data to allow for smooth nonlinearities. Our main finding is that, even using a procedure that may have low power to detect local instability, the data provide intriguing support for the view that the macroeconomy may be locally unstable and involve limit-cycle forces. An interesting finding is that the degree of nonlinearity we detect in the data is small, but nevertheless enough to alter the description of macroeconomic behavior. We complete the paper with a discussion of the extent to which these two different views about the inherent dynamics of the macroeconomy may matter for policy. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment ; Business Cycles |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w22275 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/579947 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Paul Beaudry,Dana Galizia,Franck Portier. Is the Macroeconomy Locally Unstable and Why Should We Care?. 2016. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w22275.pdf（953KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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