| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w22349 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 22349 |
| Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts: Can Private Forecasts Help? | |
| Jeffrey A. Frankel; Jesse Schreger | |
| 发表日期 | 2016-06-20 |
| 出版年 | 2016 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Government forecasts of GDP growth and budget balances are generally more over-optimistic than private sector forecasts. When official forecasts are especially optimistic relative to private forecasts ex ante, they are more likely also to be over-optimistic relative to realizations ex post. For example, euro area governments during the period 1999-2007 assiduously and inaccurately avoided forecasting deficit levels that would exceed the 3% Stability and Growth Pact threshold; meanwhile private sector forecasters were not subject to this crude bias. As a result, using private sector forecasts as an input into the government budgeting-making process would probably reduce official forecast errors for budget deficits. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Fiscal Policy ; Public Economics ; National Fiscal Issues |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w22349 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/580023 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jeffrey A. Frankel,Jesse Schreger. Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts: Can Private Forecasts Help?. 2016. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w22349.pdf（380KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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