| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w22402 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 22402 |
| Forecasting China's Economic Growth and Inflation | |
| Patrick Higgins; Tao Zha; Karen Zhong | |
| 发表日期 | 2016-07-11 |
| 出版年 | 2016 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Although macroeconomic forecasting forms an integral part of the policymaking process, there has been a serious lack of rigorous and systematic research in the evaluation of out-of-sample model-based forecasts of China's real GDP growth and CPI inflation. This paper fills this research gap by providing a replicable forecasting model that beats a host of other competing models when measured by root mean square errors, especially over long-run forecast horizons. The model is shown to be capable of predicting turning points and to be usable for policy analysis under different scenarios. It predicts that China's future GDP growth will be of L-shape rather than U-shape. |
| 主题 | Econometrics ; Estimation Methods ; Macroeconomics ; Macroeconomic Models |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w22402 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/580074 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Patrick Higgins,Tao Zha,Karen Zhong. Forecasting China's Economic Growth and Inflation. 2016. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w22402.pdf（399KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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