| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w22536 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 22536 |
| Estimating Path Dependence in Energy Transitions | |
| Kyle C. Meng | |
| 发表日期 | 2016-08-22 |
| 出版年 | 2016 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | What induces energy transitions away from dirty fuels? When transitional dynamics exhibit strong path dependence, a temporary shock to fuel composition can trigger a permanent transition from dirty to clean fuels. I empirically examine whether such dynamics characterize the U.S. electricity sector’s use of coal - the most climate-damaging fuel -across the 20th century. Exploiting local coal supply shocks driven by changing regional accessibility of subsurface coal, I find that a negative shock triggers a declining trajectory in the relative use of coal for electricity lasting for up to ten decades. Interpreted through a structural change model, reduced-form estimates imply a long-run elasticity of substitution between coal and other fuels of 3.5, a pivotal but largely unknown parameter found across recent models of optimal climate policy. Calibrated model simulations further characterize how climate policies of varying magnitudes and durations could trigger a permanent future energy transition away from coal. |
| 主题 | History ; Other History ; Development and Growth ; Growth and Productivity ; Environmental and Resource Economics ; Energy ; Environment |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w22536 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/580210 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kyle C. Meng. Estimating Path Dependence in Energy Transitions. 2016. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w22536.pdf（1672KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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