| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w22555 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 22555 |
| The Outlook for U.S. Labor-Quality Growth | |
| Canyon Bosler; Mary C. Daly; John G. Fernald; Bart Hobijn | |
| 发表日期 | 2016-08-25 |
| 出版年 | 2016 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Over the past 15 years, labor-quality growth has been very strong—defying nearly all earlier projections—and has added around 0.5 percentage points to an otherwise modest U.S. productivity picture. Going forward, labor quality is likely to add considerably less and may even be a drag on productivity growth in the medium term. Using a variety of methods, we project that potential labor-quality growth in the longer run (7 to 10 years out) is likely to fall in the range of 0.1 to 0.25 percent per year. In the medium term, labor-quality growth could be lower or even negative, should employment rates of low-skilled workers make a cyclical rebound towards pre-recession levels. The main uncertainties in the longer run are whether the secular decline in employment of low-skilled workers continues and whether the Great Recession pickup in educational attainment represents the start of a new boom or is simply a transitory reaction to a poor economy. |
| 主题 | Labor Economics ; Labor Supply and Demand ; Development and Growth ; Growth and Productivity ; Country Studies |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w22555 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/580229 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Canyon Bosler,Mary C. Daly,John G. Fernald,et al. The Outlook for U.S. Labor-Quality Growth. 2016. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w22555.pdf（689KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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