| 来源类型 | Working Paper
|
| 规范类型 | 报告
|
| DOI | 10.3386/w22622
|
| 来源ID | Working Paper 22622
|
| Is The Mediterranean The New Rio Grande? US And EU Immigration Pressures In The Long Run |
| Gordon Hanson; Craig McIntosh
|
| 发表日期 | 2016-09-12
|
| 出版年 | 2016
|
| 语种 | 英语
|
| 摘要 | How will worldwide changes in population affect pressures for international migration in the future? We contrast the past three decades, during which population pressures contributed to substantial labor flows from neighboring countries into the United States and Europe, with the coming three decades, which will see sharp reductions in labor-supply growth in Latin America but not in Africa or much of the Middle East. Using a gravity-style empirical model, we examine the contribution of changes in relative labor-supply to bilateral migration in the 2000s and then apply this model to project future bilateral flows based on long-run UN forecasts of working-age populations in sending and receiving countries. Because the Americas are entering an era of uniformly low population growth, labor flows across the Rio Grande are projected to slow markedly. Europe, in contrast, will face substantial demographically driven migration pressures from across the Mediterranean for decades to come. Although these projected inflows would triple the first-generation immigrant stocks of larger European countries, they would still absorb only a small fraction of the 800-million-person increase in the working-age population of Sub-Saharan Africa that is projected to occur over the coming 40 years. |
| 主题 | International Economics
; International Factor Mobility
; Labor Economics
; Unemployment and Immigration
|
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w22622
|
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
|
| 引用统计 |
|
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
|
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/580295
|
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Gordon Hanson,Craig McIntosh. Is The Mediterranean The New Rio Grande? US And EU Immigration Pressures In The Long Run. 2016.
|
|
文件名：
|
w22622.pdf
|
|
格式：
|
Adobe PDF
|
此文件暂不支持浏览
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
