全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Market Potential and Global Growth over the Long Twentieth Century

G2TT

来源类型	Working Paper
规范类型	报告
DOI	10.3386/w22736
来源ID	Working Paper 22736
	Market Potential and Global Growth over the Long Twentieth Century
	David S. Jacks; Dennis Novy
发表日期	2016-10-17
出版年	2016
语种	英语
摘要	We examine the evolution of market potential and its role in driving economic growth over the long twentieth century. Theoretically, we exploit a structural gravity model to derive a closed-form solution for a widely-used measure of market potential. We are thus able to express market potential as a function of directly observable and easily estimated variables. Empirically, we collect a large dataset on aggregate and bilateral trade flows as well as output for 51 countries. We find that market potential exhibits an upward trend across all regions of the world from the early 1930s and that this trend significantly deviates from the evolution of world GDP. Finally, using exogenous variation in trade-related distances to world markets, we demonstrate a significant causal role of market potential in driving global income growth over this period.
主题	International Economics ; Trade ; History ; Other History
URL	https://www.nber.org/papers/w22736
来源智库	National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/580410
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	David S. Jacks,Dennis Novy. Market Potential and Global Growth over the Long Twentieth Century. 2016.

条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小	资源类型	版本类型	开放类型	使用许可
w22736.pdf（918KB）	智库出版物		限制开放	CC BY-NC-SA	浏览