| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w22801 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 22801 |
| The Long Shadow of a Fiscal Expansion | |
| Chong-En Bai; Chang-Tai Hsieh; Zheng Michael Song | |
| 发表日期 | 2016-11-07 |
| 出版年 | 2016 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | In 2009 and 2010, China undertook a 4 trillion Yuan fiscal stimulus, roughly equivalent to 12 percent of annual GDP. The "fiscal" stimulus was largely financed by off-balance sheet companies (local financing vehicles) that borrowed and spent on behalf of local governments. The off-balance sheet financial institutions continued to grow after the stimulus program ended at the end of 2010. After the end of the stimulus program, spending by these off-balance sheet companies accounted for roughly 10% of GDP each year, with an increasing share used for what are essentially private commercial projects. The off-balance spending by local governments is likely responsible for a 5 percentage-point increase in the aggregate investment rate and part of the 7 to 8 percentage-point decline in current account surplus since 2008. Finally, we argue that local governments used their new access to financial resources to facilitate access to capital to favored private firms, which potentially worsens the overall efficiency of capital allocation. The long run effect of off-balance sheet spending by local governments may be a permanent decline in the growth rate of aggregate productivity and GDP. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w22801 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/580473 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Chong-En Bai,Chang-Tai Hsieh,Zheng Michael Song. The Long Shadow of a Fiscal Expansion. 2016. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w22801.pdf（242KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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