全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): The Surprising Instability of Export Specializations

G2TT

来源类型	Working Paper
规范类型	报告
DOI	10.3386/w22869
来源ID	Working Paper 22869
	The Surprising Instability of Export Specializations
	Diego Daruich; William Easterly; Ariell Reshef
发表日期	2016-11-28
出版年	2016
语种	英语
摘要	We study the instability of hyper-specialization of exports. We have two main findings. (1) Specializations are surprisingly unstable: Export ranks are not persistent, and new top products and destinations replace old ones. Measurement error is unlikely to be the main or only determinant of this pattern. (2) Source-country factors are not the main explanation of this instability: Only 20% of the variation in export growth can be explained by variation in comparative advantage (source-by-product factors), while another 20% of the variation in export growth can be explained by variation in bilateral (source-by-destination) factors. The high share of product, destination, and product-by-destination factors, diminishes the emphasis on the nations where the exports originate. The high share of idiosyncratic variance (residual at the source-product-destination level of variation) of about 30%, also indicates the difficulty to predict export success using source country characteristics. These findings suggest that export performance depends, to a greater extent than previously appreciated, on forces that are outside the realm of national export promotion and industrial policies.
主题	International Economics ; Trade ; Globalization and International Relations ; Development and Growth ; Development
URL	https://www.nber.org/papers/w22869
来源智库	National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/580543
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Diego Daruich,William Easterly,Ariell Reshef. The Surprising Instability of Export Specializations. 2016.

条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小	资源类型	版本类型	开放类型	使用许可
w22869.pdf（1185KB）	智库出版物		限制开放	CC BY-NC-SA	浏览