| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w22872 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 22872 |
| The Interest Rate Effect on Private Saving: Alternative Perspectives | |
| Joshua Aizenman; Yin-Wong Cheung; Hiro Ito | |
| 发表日期 | 2016-11-28 |
| 出版年 | 2016 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Using an uneven panel of 135 countries from 1995 to 2014, we investigate the link between interest rates and private saving, and focus on whether the interest rate effect is dominated by the income (i.e., negative) or the substitution (i.e., positive) effect. With the baseline estimation, we find that the real interest rate has the substitution effect on private saving only for a full-country sample and a group of Asian economies. We also examine if low real - or nominal - interest rates have any impact on the link between the real interest rate and the private saving rate. We find that among developing countries, when the nominal interest rate is not too low, we detect the substitution effect of the real interest rate on private saving. However, among industrial and emerging economies, the substitution effect is detected only when the nominal interest rate is lower than 2.5%. In contrast, emerging-market Asian countries are found to have the income effect when the nominal interest rate is below 2.5%. When we examine the interactive effects between the real interest rate and the variables for economic conditions and policies, we find that the real interest rate has a negative impact - i.e., income effect - on private saving if any output volatility, old dependency, or financial development is above a certain threshold. Further, when the real interest rate is below 1.5%, greater output volatility would lead to higher private saving in developing countries. Lastly, we find that old dependency ratios, public healthcare expenditure, and financial development have negative impacts on private saving, but such impacts in absolute values tend to become smaller as the real interest rate becomes lower. |
| 主题 | International Economics ; International Finance ; International Macroeconomics |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w22872 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/580546 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Joshua Aizenman,Yin-Wong Cheung,Hiro Ito. The Interest Rate Effect on Private Saving: Alternative Perspectives. 2016. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w22872.pdf（559KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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