| 来源类型 | Working Paper
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| 规范类型 | 报告
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| DOI | 10.3386/w22885
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| 来源ID | Working Paper 22885
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| Population Growth and Carbon Emissions |
| Gregory Casey; Oded Galor
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| 发表日期 | 2016-12-05
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| 出版年 | 2016
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| 语种 | 英语
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| 摘要 | We provide evidence that lower fertility can simultaneously increase income per capita and lower carbon emissions, eliminating a trade-off central to most policies aimed at slowing global climate change. We estimate the effect of lower fertility on carbon emissions accounting for the fact that changes in fertility patterns affect carbon emissions through three channels: total population, the age structure of the population, and economic output. Our analysis proceeds in two steps. First, we estimate a version of the STIRPAT equation on an unbalanced yearly panel of cross-country data from 1950-2010. We demonstrate that the coefficient on population is nearly seven times larger than the coefficient on income per capita and that this difference is statistically significant. Thus, regression results imply that 1% slower population growth could be accompanied by an increase in income per capita of nearly 7% while still lowering carbon emissions. In the second part of our analysis, we use a recently constructed economic-demographic model of Nigeria to estimate the effect of lower fertility on carbon emissions accounting for the impacts of fertility on population growth, population age structure, and income per capita. The model was constructed to estimate the effect of lower fertility on economic growth, making it well-suited for this application. We find that by 2100 C.E., moving from the medium to the low variant of the UN fertility projection leads to 35% lower yearly emissions and 15% higher income per capita. These results suggest that population policies could be a part of the approach to combating global climate change. |
| 主题 | Labor Economics
; Demography and Aging
; Development and Growth
; Growth and Productivity
; Environmental and Resource Economics
; Environment
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| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w22885
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| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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| 引用统计 |
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/580559
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Gregory Casey,Oded Galor. Population Growth and Carbon Emissions. 2016.
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文件名：
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w22885.pdf
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格式：
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Adobe PDF
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