Gateway to Think Tanks
来源类型 | Working Paper |
规范类型 | 报告 |
DOI | 10.3386/w22958 |
来源ID | Working Paper 22958 |
Learning, Confidence, and Business Cycles | |
Cosmin L. Ilut; Hikaru Saijo | |
发表日期 | 2016-12-19 |
出版年 | 2016 |
语种 | 英语 |
摘要 | We build a tractable heterogeneous-firm business cycle model where firms face Knightian uncertainty about their profitability and learn it through production. The cross-sectional mean of firm-level uncertainty is high in recessions because firms invest and hire less. The higher uncertainty reduces agents' confidence and further discourages economic activity. We characterize this feedback mechanism in linear, workhorse macroeconomic models and find that it endogenously generates empirically desirable cross-equation restrictions such as: amplified and hump-shaped dynamics, co-movement driven by demand shocks and countercyclical correlated wedges in the equilibrium conditions for labor, risk-free and risky assets. In a rich model estimated on US macroeconomic and financial data, the information friction changes inference and significantly reduces the empirical need for standard real and nominal rigidities. Furthermore, endogenous idiosyncratic uncertainty propagates shocks to financial conditions, disciplined by observed spreads, as key drivers of fluctuations, and magnifies the aggregate activity's response to monetary and fiscal policies. |
主题 | Econometrics ; Estimation Methods ; Microeconomics ; Economics of Information ; Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; Money and Interest Rates |
URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w22958 |
来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
引用统计 | |
资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/580631 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Cosmin L. Ilut,Hikaru Saijo. Learning, Confidence, and Business Cycles. 2016. |
条目包含的文件 | ||||||
文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
w22958.pdf(555KB) | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 |
个性服务 |
推荐该条目 |
保存到收藏夹 |
导出为Endnote文件 |
谷歌学术 |
谷歌学术中相似的文章 |
[Cosmin L. Ilut]的文章 |
[Hikaru Saijo]的文章 |
百度学术 |
百度学术中相似的文章 |
[Cosmin L. Ilut]的文章 |
[Hikaru Saijo]的文章 |
必应学术 |
必应学术中相似的文章 |
[Cosmin L. Ilut]的文章 |
[Hikaru Saijo]的文章 |
相关权益政策 |
暂无数据 |
收藏/分享 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。