| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w22984 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 22984 |
| A Structural Analysis of the Effects of the Great Recession on Retirement and Working Longer by Members of Two-Earner Households | |
| Alan L. Gustman; Thomas L. Steinmeier; Nahid Tabatabai | |
| 发表日期 | 2016-12-26 |
| 出版年 | 2016 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper uses data from the Health and Retirement Study to estimate a structural model of household retirement and saving. It applies that model to analyze the effects of the Great Recession on the work and retirement of older couples who were both employed full-time at the beginning of the recession. We analyze the effects of job loss, changes in wealth and changes in expectations. The largest overall effects of the Great Recession are observed for 2009 and 2010. In 2009, an additional 2.5 percent of all 55 to 59 year old husbands were not working full-time as result of the Great Recession, amounting to a reduction of 3.2 percent in full-time work. In 2010, 2.8 percent of 55 to 59 year old husbands were not working full-time as a result of the Great Recession, amounting to a 3.8 percent reduction in full-time work. For wives the reductions in full-time work due to the Great Recession were 1.7 percent and 2.2 percent of those who initially held a job, or reductions of full-time work of 2.3 and 3.0 percent respectively. For those 60 to 64, the reductions were 1.2 percent of men and 0.9 percent of women. Having been laid off in the last three years reduces full-time work by 30 percent. There also are lingering effects of layoff on the probability of working longer. Having been laid off three or more years in the past reduces full-time employment in the current year by about 12 percent. This reflects the reduced work incentives for full-time work arising from lower earnings due to the loss of job tenure with a layoff as well as the additional earnings penalty from a layoff. The effect on own work of a spouse having been laid off is much smaller. The reason is that, as found in the estimation of our structural model, having one spouse not working increases the value of leisure for the other. In contrast, when one member of the household loses their job, the value of consumption increases relative to leisure. For recent layoffs, these effects are roughly offsetting. All told, the effects of the Great Recession on retirement seem relatively modest. These findings are consistent with our earlier descriptive analyses. |
| 主题 | Microeconomics ; Mathematical Tools ; Market Structure and Distribution ; Behavioral Economics ; Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment ; Business Cycles ; Public Economics ; National Fiscal Issues ; Health, Education, and Welfare ; Poverty and Wellbeing ; Labor Economics ; Demography and Aging ; Labor Compensation ; Unemployment and Immigration |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w22984 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/580658 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Alan L. Gustman,Thomas L. Steinmeier,Nahid Tabatabai. A Structural Analysis of the Effects of the Great Recession on Retirement and Working Longer by Members of Two-Earner Households. 2016. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w22984.pdf（759KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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