| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w23071 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 23071 |
| One in a Million: Field Experiments on Perceived Closeness of the Election and Voter Turnout | |
| Alan Gerber; Mitchell Hoffman; John Morgan; Collin Raymond | |
| 发表日期 | 2017-01-23 |
| 出版年 | 2017 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | A common feature of many models of voter turnout is that increasing the perceived closeness of the election should increase voter turnout. However, cleanly testing this prediction is difficult and little is known about voter beliefs regarding the closeness of a given race. We conduct a field experiment during the 2010 US gubernatorial elections where we elicit voter beliefs about the closeness of the election before and after showing different polls, which, depending on treatment, indicate a close race or a not close race. We find that subjects update their beliefs in response to new information, but systematically overestimate the probability of a very close election. However, the decision to vote is unaffected by beliefs about the closeness of the election. A follow-up field experiment, conducted during the 2014 gubernatorial elections but at much larger scale, also points to little relationship between poll information about closeness and voter turnout. |
| 主题 | Microeconomics ; Behavioral Economics ; Welfare and Collective Choice ; Public Economics ; Other ; Economic Systems |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w23071 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/580745 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Alan Gerber,Mitchell Hoffman,John Morgan,et al. One in a Million: Field Experiments on Perceived Closeness of the Election and Voter Turnout. 2017. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w23071.pdf（287KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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