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来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w23071
来源IDWorking Paper 23071
One in a Million: Field Experiments on Perceived Closeness of the Election and Voter Turnout
Alan Gerber; Mitchell Hoffman; John Morgan; Collin Raymond
发表日期2017-01-23
出版年2017
语种英语
摘要A common feature of many models of voter turnout is that increasing the perceived closeness of the election should increase voter turnout. However, cleanly testing this prediction is difficult and little is known about voter beliefs regarding the closeness of a given race. We conduct a field experiment during the 2010 US gubernatorial elections where we elicit voter beliefs about the closeness of the election before and after showing different polls, which, depending on treatment, indicate a close race or a not close race. We find that subjects update their beliefs in response to new information, but systematically overestimate the probability of a very close election. However, the decision to vote is unaffected by beliefs about the closeness of the election. A follow-up field experiment, conducted during the 2014 gubernatorial elections but at much larger scale, also points to little relationship between poll information about closeness and voter turnout.
主题Microeconomics ; Behavioral Economics ; Welfare and Collective Choice ; Public Economics ; Other ; Economic Systems
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w23071
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/580745
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Alan Gerber,Mitchell Hoffman,John Morgan,et al. One in a Million: Field Experiments on Perceived Closeness of the Election and Voter Turnout. 2017.
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