| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w23093 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 23093 |
| A Model of Secular Stagnation: Theory and Quantitative Evaluation | |
| Gauti B. Eggertsson; Neil R. Mehrotra; Jacob A. Robbins | |
| 发表日期 | 2017-01-30 |
| 出版年 | 2017 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper formalizes and quantifies the secular stagnation hypothesis, defined as a persistently low or negative natural rate of interest leading to a chronically binding zero lower bound (ZLB). Output-inflation dynamics and policy prescriptions are fundamentally different from those in the standard New Keynesian framework. Using a 56-period quantitative life cycle model, a standard calibration to US data delivers a natural rate ranging from –1:5% to –2%, implying an elevated risk of ZLB episodes for the foreseeable future. We decompose the contribution of demographic and technological factors to the decline in interest rates since 1970 and quantify changes required to restore higher rates. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Policy |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w23093 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/580767 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Gauti B. Eggertsson,Neil R. Mehrotra,Jacob A. Robbins. A Model of Secular Stagnation: Theory and Quantitative Evaluation. 2017. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w23093.pdf（1503KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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