全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): On the Global Financial Market Integration \u201cSwoosh\u201d and the Trilemma

G2TT

来源类型	Working Paper
规范类型	报告
DOI	10.3386/w23124
来源ID	Working Paper 23124
	On the Global Financial Market Integration \u201cSwoosh\u201d and the Trilemma
	Geert Bekaert; Arnaud Mehl
发表日期	2017-02-06
出版年	2017
语种	英语
摘要	We propose a simple measure of de facto financial market integration based on a factor model of monthly equity returns, which can be computed back to the first era of financial globalization for 17 countries. Global financial market integration follows a “swoosh” shape – i.e. high pre-1913, still higher post-1990, low in the interwar period – rather than the other shapes hypothesized in earlier literature. We find no evidence of financial globalization reversing since the Great Recession as claimed in other recent studies. De jure capital account openness and global growth uncertainty are the two main determinants of long-run global financial market integration. We use our measure to revisit the debate on the trilemma between financial openness, the exchange rate regime, and monetary policy autonomy, and on whether the trilemma has recently morphed into a dilemma due to global financial cycles. We find evidence consistent with the trilemma and inconsistent with the dilemma hypothesis, both throughout history and for the recent decades; non-US central banks still exert more control over domestic interest rates when exchange rates are flexible in economies open to global finance.
主题	International Economics ; Trade ; International Factor Mobility ; International Finance ; International Macroeconomics ; Globalization and International Relations ; Financial Economics ; Financial Markets ; History ; Financial History
URL	https://www.nber.org/papers/w23124
来源智库	National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/580798
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Geert Bekaert,Arnaud Mehl. On the Global Financial Market Integration \u201cSwoosh\u201d and the Trilemma. 2017.

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w23124.pdf（3550KB）	智库出版物		限制开放	CC BY-NC-SA	浏览