| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w23160 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 23160 |
| Short-Run Effects of Lower Productivity Growth. A Twist on the Secular Stagnation Hypothesis | |
| Olivier Blanchard; Guido Lorenzoni; Jean-Paul L'; Huillier | |
| 发表日期 | 2017-02-13 |
| 出版年 | 2017 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Since 2010, U.S. GDP growth has been anemic, averaging 2.1% a year, and this despite interest rates very close to zero. Historically, one would have expected such low sustained rates to lead to much stronger demand. They have not. For a while, one could point to plausible culprits, from a weak financial system to fiscal consolidation. But, as time passed, the financial system strengthened, fiscal consolidation came to an end, and still growth did not pick up. We argue that this is due, in large part, not to legacies of the past but to lower optimism about the future, more specifically to downward revisions in forecast potential growth. Put simply, the anticipation of a less bright future is leading to temporarily weaker demand. If our explanation is correct, it has important implications for policy and for forecasts. It may weaken the case for secular stagnation, as it suggests that the need for very low interest rates may be partly temporary. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Macroeconomic Models ; Consumption and Investment ; Business Cycles |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w23160 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/580834 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Olivier Blanchard,Guido Lorenzoni,Jean-Paul L',et al. Short-Run Effects of Lower Productivity Growth. A Twist on the Secular Stagnation Hypothesis. 2017. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w23160.pdf（199KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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