| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w23228 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 23228 |
| The Making of Hawks and Doves: Inflation Experiences on the FOMC | |
| Ulrike Malmendier; Stefan Nagel; Zhen Yan | |
| 发表日期 | 2017-03-13 |
| 出版年 | 2017 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We show that personal experiences of inflation strongly influence the hawkish or dovish leanings of central bankers. For all members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) since 1951, we estimate an adaptive learning rule based on their lifetime inflation data. The resulting experience-based forecasts have significant predictive power for members' FOMC voting decisions, the hawkishness of the tone of their speeches, as well as the heterogeneity in their semi-annual inflation projections. Averaging over all FOMC members present at a meeting, inflation experiences also help to explain the federal funds target rate, over and above conventional Taylor rule components. |
| 主题 | Microeconomics ; Economics of Information ; Macroeconomics ; Monetary Policy |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w23228 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/580902 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ulrike Malmendier,Stefan Nagel,Zhen Yan. The Making of Hawks and Doves: Inflation Experiences on the FOMC. 2017. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w23228.pdf（872KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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