| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w23411 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 23411 |
| Policy Uncertainty In Japan | |
| Elif C. Arbatli; Steven J. Davis; Arata Ito; Naoko Miake | |
| 发表日期 | 2017-05-22 |
| 出版年 | 2017 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We develop new economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indices for Japan from January 1987 onwards, building on Baker, Bloom and Davis (2016). Each index reflects the frequency of newspaper articles that contain certain terms pertaining to the economy, policy matters, and uncertainty. Our overall EPU index co-varies positively with implied volatilities for Japanese equities, exchange rates, and interest rates and with a survey-based measure of political uncertainty. It rises around contested national elections and major leadership transitions in Japan, during the Asian financial crisis and in reaction to the Lehman Brothers failure, U.S. debt downgrade in 2011, Brexit referendum, the deferral of a consumption tax hike, and the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our uncertainty indices for fiscal, monetary, trade, and exchange rate policy co-vary positively but also display distinct dynamics. For example, our trade policy uncertainty (TPU) index rocketed upwards when the U.S. withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership. VAR models imply that upward EPU innovations foreshadow deteriorations in Japan’s macroeconomic performance, as reflected by impulse response functions for investment, employment, and output. Our study adds to evidence that credible policy plans and strong policy frameworks can favorably influence macroeconomic performance by reducing policy uncertainty. |
| 主题 | Microeconomics ; Economics of Information ; Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment ; Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Policy ; International Economics ; Trade |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w23411 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/581085 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Elif C. Arbatli,Steven J. Davis,Arata Ito,et al. Policy Uncertainty In Japan. 2017. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w23411.pdf（1057KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
