| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w23490 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 23490 |
| Identifying the Effect of Election Closeness on Voter Turnout: Evidence from Swiss Referenda | |
| Leonardo Bursztyn; Davide Cantoni; Patricia Funk; Felix Schönenberger; Noam Yuchtman | |
| 发表日期 | 2017-06-12 |
| 出版年 | 2017 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We provide evidence of a causal effect of anticipated election closeness on voter turnout, exploiting the precise day-level timing of the release of Swiss national poll results for high-stakes federal referenda, and a novel dataset on daily mail-in voting for the canton of Geneva. Using an event study design, we find that the release of a closer poll causes voter turnout to sharply rise immediately after poll release, with no differential pre-release turnout levels or trends. We provide evidence that polls affect turnout by providing information shaping beliefs about closeness: first, the introduction of Swiss polls had significantly larger effects in politically unrepresentative municipalities, where locally available signals of closeness are less correlated with national closeness. Second, the effects of close polls are largest where newspapers report on them most. Counterfactual exercises suggest the importance of polls and reporting on polls in shaping election outcomes. |
| 主题 | Microeconomics ; Welfare and Collective Choice ; Other ; Economic Systems |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w23490 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/581164 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Leonardo Bursztyn,Davide Cantoni,Patricia Funk,et al. Identifying the Effect of Election Closeness on Voter Turnout: Evidence from Swiss Referenda. 2017. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w23490.pdf（543KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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