| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w23574 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 23574 |
| The Methuselah Effect: The Pernicious Impact of Unreported Deaths on Old Age Mortality Estimates | |
| Dan A. Black; Yu-Chieh Hsu; Seth G. Sanders; Lynne Steuerle Schofield; Lowell J. Taylor | |
| 发表日期 | 2017-07-17 |
| 出版年 | 2017 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We examine inferences about old age mortality that arise when researchers use survey data matched to death records. We show that even small rates of failure to match respondents can lead to substantial bias in the measurement of mortality rates at older ages. This type of measurement error is consequential for three strands in the demographic literature: (1) the deceleration in mortality rates at old ages, (2) the black-white mortality crossover, and (3) the relatively low rate of old age mortality among Hispanics—often called the “Hispanic paradox.” Using the National Longitudinal Survey of Older Men (NLS-OM) matched to death records in both the U.S. Vital Statistics system and the Social Security Death Index, we demonstrate that even small rates of missing mortality matching plausibly lead to an appearance of mortality deceleration when none exists, and can generate a spurious black-white mortality crossover. We confirm these findings using data from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) matched to the U.S. Vital Statistics system, a dataset known as the “gold standard” (Cowper et al., 2002) for estimating age-specific mortality. Moreover, with these data we show that the Hispanic paradox is also plausibly explained by a similar undercount. |
| 主题 | Labor Economics ; Demography and Aging |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w23574 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/581248 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Dan A. Black,Yu-Chieh Hsu,Seth G. Sanders,et al. The Methuselah Effect: The Pernicious Impact of Unreported Deaths on Old Age Mortality Estimates. 2017. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w23574.pdf（1207KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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