| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w23580 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 23580 |
| The Cyclical Sensitivity in Estimates of Potential Output | |
| Olivier Coibion; Yuriy Gorodnichenko; Mauricio Ulate | |
| 发表日期 | 2017-07-17 |
| 出版年 | 2017 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The fact that most of the persistent declines in output since the Great Recession have parlayed into equivalent declines in measures of potential output is commonly interpreted as implying that output will not return to previous trends. Using a variety of estimates of potential output for the U.S. and other countries, we show that these estimates respond gradually not only to supply-side shocks but also respond to demand shocks that have only transitory effects on output. Observing a revision in measures of potential output therefore says little about whether concurrent changes in actual output are likely to be permanent or not. In contrast, some structural VAR methodologies can avoid these shortcomings, even in real-time. These approaches point toward a more limited decline in potential output following the Great Recession. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment ; Business Cycles |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w23580 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/581254 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Olivier Coibion,Yuriy Gorodnichenko,Mauricio Ulate. The Cyclical Sensitivity in Estimates of Potential Output. 2017. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w23580.pdf（668KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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