| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w23614 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 23614 |
| A Risk-centric Model of Demand Recessions and Speculation | |
| Ricardo J. Caballero; Alp Simsek | |
| 发表日期 | 2017-07-24 |
| 出版年 | 2017 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We provide a continuous-time “risk-centric” representation of the New Keynesian model, which we use to analyze the interactions between asset prices, financial speculation, and macro- economic outcomes when output is determined by aggregate demand. In principle, interest rate policy is highly effective in dealing with shocks to asset valuations. However, in practice monetary policy faces a wide range of constraints. If these constraints are severe, a decline in risky asset valuations generates a demand recession. This reduces earnings and generates a negative feedback loop between asset prices and aggregate demand. In the recession phase, average beliefs matter not only because they affect asset valuations but also because they determine the strength of the amplification mechanism. In the ex-ante boom phase, belief disagreements (or heterogeneous asset valuations) matter because they induce investors to speculate. This speculation exacerbates the crash by reducing high-valuation investors’ wealth when the economy transitions to recession, which depresses (wealth-weighted) average beliefs. Macroprudential policy that restricts speculation in the boom can Pareto improve welfare by increasing asset prices and aggregate demand in the recession. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Macroeconomic Models ; Consumption and Investment ; Business Cycles ; Money and Interest Rates ; Financial Economics ; Portfolio Selection and Asset Pricing |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w23614 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/581288 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ricardo J. Caballero,Alp Simsek. A Risk-centric Model of Demand Recessions and Speculation. 2017. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w23614.pdf（1570KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
