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来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w23694
来源IDWorking Paper 23694
The Housing Boom and Bust: Model Meets Evidence
Greg Kaplan; Kurt Mitman; Giovanni L. Violante
发表日期2017-08-21
出版年2017
语种英语
摘要We build a model of the U.S. economy with multiple aggregate shocks (income, housing finance conditions, and beliefs about future housing demand) that generate fluctuations in equilibrium house prices. Through a series of counterfactual experiments, we study the housing boom and bust around the Great Recession and obtain three main results. First, we find that the main driver of movements in house prices and rents was a shift in beliefs. Shifts in credit conditions do not move house prices but are important for the dynamics of home ownership, leverage, and foreclosures. The role of housing rental markets and long-term mortgages in alleviating credit constraints is central to these findings. Second, our model suggests that the boom-bust in house prices explains half of the corresponding swings in non-durable expenditures and that the transmission mechanism is a wealth effect through household balance sheets. Third, we find that a large-scale debt forgiveness program would have done little to temper the collapse of house prices and expenditures, but would have dramatically reduced foreclosures and induced a small, but persistent, increase in consumption during the recovery.
主题Microeconomics ; Households and Firms ; Market Structure and Distribution ; Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment ; Business Cycles ; Money and Interest Rates ; Monetary Policy
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w23694
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/581367
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GB/T 7714
Greg Kaplan,Kurt Mitman,Giovanni L. Violante. The Housing Boom and Bust: Model Meets Evidence. 2017.
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