| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w23835 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 23835 |
| Default Risk, Sectoral Reallocation, and Persistent Recessions | |
| Cristina Arellano; Yan Bai; Gabriel Mihalache | |
| 发表日期 | 2017-09-18 |
| 出版年 | 2017 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Sovereign debt crises are associated with large and persistent declines in economic activity, disproportionately so for nontradable sectors. This paper documents this pattern using Spanish data and builds a two-sector dynamic quantitative model of sovereign default with capital accumulation. Recessions are very persistent in the model and more pronounced for nontraded sectors because of default risk. An adverse domestic shock increases the likelihood of default, limits capital inflows, and thus restricts the ability of the economy to exploit investment opportunities. The economy responds by reducing investment and reallocating capital toward the traded sector to support debt service payments. The real exchange rate depreciates, a reflection of the scarcity of traded goods. We find that these mechanisms are quantitatively important for rationalizing the experience of Spain during the recent debt crisis. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; International Economics ; International Finance |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w23835 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/581508 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Cristina Arellano,Yan Bai,Gabriel Mihalache. Default Risk, Sectoral Reallocation, and Persistent Recessions. 2017. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w23835.pdf（345KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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