| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w23973 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 23973 |
| The Unconventional Oil Supply Boom: Aggregate Price Response from Microdata | |
| Richard G. Newell; Brian C. Prest | |
| 发表日期 | 2017-10-30 |
| 出版年 | 2017 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We analyze the price responsiveness of onshore oil supply from conventional versus new unconventional "tight" formations in the United States. We separately analyze three key stages of oil production: drilling wells, completing wells, and production from completed wells. We find that the important margin is drilling investment. We estimate drilling responses of approximately 1.6 percent for tight oil and 1.2 percent for conventional oil per 1 percent change in oil prices. In addition, tight oil wells produce about 4.6 times more oil compared to conventional ones. Together, the long-run price responsiveness of supply is about 6 times larger for tight oil on a per well basis, and about 9 times larger when also accounting for the rise in unconventional-directed drilling. Based on our estimates derived from microdata, we conduct aggregate simulations of incremental oil supply at different time frames and price levels. The simulations show that the U.S. supply response is much larger now due to the shale revolution. Given a price rise to $80 per barrel, U.S. oil production could rise by 0.5 million barrels per day in 6 months, 1.2 million in 1 year, 2 million in 2 years, and 3 million in 5 years. Nonetheless, it takes many months before a substantial portion of the full supply response is online, longer than the 30 to 90 days typically associated with the role of "swing producer" such as Saudi Arabia. |
| 主题 | Microeconomics ; Households and Firms ; Industrial Organization ; Industry Studies ; Environmental and Resource Economics ; Energy |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w23973 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/581647 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Richard G. Newell,Brian C. Prest. The Unconventional Oil Supply Boom: Aggregate Price Response from Microdata. 2017. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w23973.pdf（487KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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