| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w23988 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 23988 |
| Global Trade and the Dollar | |
| Emine Boz; Gita Gopinath; Mikkel Plagborg-Møller | |
| 发表日期 | 2017-11-06 |
| 出版年 | 2017 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We document that the U.S. dollar exchange rate drives global trade prices and volumes. Using a newly constructed data set of bilateral price and volume indices for more than 2,500 country pairs, we establish the following facts: 1) The dollar exchange rate quantitatively dominates the bilateral exchange rate in price pass-through and trade elasticity regressions. U.S. monetary policy induced dollar fluctuations have high pass-through into bilateral import prices. 2) Bilateral non-commodities terms of trade are essentially uncorrelated with bilateral exchange rates. 3) The strength of the U.S. dollar is a key predictor of rest-of-world aggregate trade volume and consumer/producer price inflation. A 1% U.S. dollar appreciation against all other currencies in the world predicts a 0.6--0.8% decline within a year in the volume of total trade between countries in the rest of the world, controlling for the global business cycle. 4) Using a novel Bayesian semiparametric hierarchical panel data model, we estimate that the importing country's share of imports invoiced in dollars explains 15% of the variance of dollar pass-through/elasticity across country pairs. Our findings strongly support the dominant currency paradigm as opposed to the traditional Mundell-Fleming pricing paradigms. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Monetary Policy ; International Economics ; Trade ; International Finance ; International Macroeconomics |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w23988 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/581663 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Emine Boz,Gita Gopinath,Mikkel Plagborg-Møller. Global Trade and the Dollar. 2017. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w23988.pdf（996KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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