| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w24001 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 24001 |
| Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox: A Clash of Expectations and Statistics | |
| Erik Brynjolfsson; Daniel Rock; Chad Syverson | |
| 发表日期 | 2017-11-06 |
| 出版年 | 2017 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We live in an age of paradox. Systems using artificial intelligence match or surpass human level performance in more and more domains, leveraging rapid advances in other technologies and driving soaring stock prices. Yet measured productivity growth has declined by half over the past decade, and real income has stagnated since the late 1990s for a majority of Americans. We describe four potential explanations for this clash of expectations and statistics: false hopes, mismeasurement, redistribution, and implementation lags. While a case can be made for each, we argue that lags have likely been the biggest contributor to the paradox. The most impressive capabilities of AI, particularly those based on machine learning, have not yet diffused widely. More importantly, like other general purpose technologies, their full effects won’t be realized until waves of complementary innovations are developed and implemented. The required adjustment costs, organizational changes, and new skills can be modeled as a kind of intangible capital. A portion of the value of this intangible capital is already reflected in the market value of firms. However, going forward, national statistics could fail to measure the full benefits of the new technologies and some may even have the wrong sign. |
| 主题 | Microeconomics ; Households and Firms ; Development and Growth ; Innovation and R& ; D ; Growth and Productivity |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/581673 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Erik Brynjolfsson,Daniel Rock,Chad Syverson. Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox: A Clash of Expectations and Statistics. 2017. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w24001.pdf（793KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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