| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w24145 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 24145 |
| Mars or Mercury? The Geopolitics of International Currency Choice | |
| Barry Eichengreen; Arnaud J. Mehl; Livia Chitu | |
| 发表日期 | 2017-12-25 |
| 出版年 | 2017 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We assess the role of economic and security considerations in the currency composition of international reserves. We contrast the “Mercury hypothesis” that currency choice is governed by pecuniary factors familiar to the literature, such as economic size and credibility of major reserve currency issuers, against the “Mars hypothesis” that this depends on geopolitical factors. Using data on foreign reserves of 19 countries before World War I, for which the currency composition of reserves is known and security alliances proliferated, our results lend support to both hypotheses. We find that military alliances boost the share of a currency in the partner’s foreign reserve holdings by 30 percentage points. These findings speak to current discussions about the implications of possible U.S. disengagement from global geopolitical affairs. In a hypothetical scenario where the U.S. withdraws from the world, our estimates suggest that long-term U.S. interest rates could rise by as much as 80 basis points, assuming that the composition of global reserves changes but their level does not. |
| 主题 | International Economics ; International Finance ; Globalization and International Relations ; History ; Macroeconomic History |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w24145 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/581819 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Barry Eichengreen,Arnaud J. Mehl,Livia Chitu. Mars or Mercury? The Geopolitics of International Currency Choice. 2017. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w24145.pdf（451KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
