| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w24293 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 24293 |
| Decision Fatigue and Heuristic Analyst Forecasts | |
| David Hirshleifer; Yaron Levi; Ben Lourie; Siew Hong Teoh | |
| 发表日期 | 2018-02-12 |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Psychological evidence indicates that decision quality declines after an extensive session of decision-making, a phenomenon known as decision fatigue. We study whether decision fatigue affects analysts’ judgments. Analysts cover multiple firms and often issue several forecasts in a single day. We find that forecast accuracy declines over the course of a day as the number of forecasts the analyst has already issued increases. Also consistent with decision fatigue, we find that the more forecasts an analyst issues, the higher the likelihood the analyst resorts to more heuristic decisions by herding more closely with the consensus forecast, by self-herding (i.e., reissuing their own previous outstanding forecasts), and by issuing a rounded forecast. Finally, we find that the stock market understands these effects and discounts for analyst decision fatigue. |
| 主题 | Microeconomics ; Behavioral Economics ; Financial Economics ; Financial Institutions ; Behavioral Finance |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w24293 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/581965 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | David Hirshleifer,Yaron Levi,Ben Lourie,et al. Decision Fatigue and Heuristic Analyst Forecasts. 2018. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w24293.pdf（408KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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