全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): The Wedge of the Century: Understanding a Divergence between CPI and PPI Inflation Measures

G2TT

来源类型	Working Paper
规范类型	报告
DOI	10.3386/w24319
来源ID	Working Paper 24319
	The Wedge of the Century: Understanding a Divergence between CPI and PPI Inflation Measures
	Shang-Jin Wei; Yinxi Xie
发表日期	2018-02-19
出版年	2018
语种	英语
摘要	Two strands of the literature suggest that PPI inflation, rather than CPI inflation, should be the targeting variable in a monetary policy rule. The distinction between these two rules would only be important if the two inflation indices do not co-move strongly. The first contribution of this paper is to document that the two inflation gauges did co-move strongly in the last century but the correlation has fallen substantially since the start of this century. The second contribution is to propose a structural explanation for this divergence based on a lengthening of world production chains since 2000. This theory implies that the decline in the correlation is likely to be permanent and a rethinking of the monetary policy rules has become more important. Our multi-stage multi-country production model has additional predictions on the behavior of CPI and PPI inflation beyond a fallen correlation, and these predictions are also confirmed in the data.
主题	Macroeconomics ; Monetary Policy ; International Economics ; Trade
URL	https://www.nber.org/papers/w24319
来源智库	National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/581992
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Shang-Jin Wei,Yinxi Xie. The Wedge of the Century: Understanding a Divergence between CPI and PPI Inflation Measures. 2018.

条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小	资源类型	版本类型	开放类型	使用许可
w24319.pdf（477KB）	智库出版物		限制开放	CC BY-NC-SA	浏览