| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w24353 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 24353 |
| Protectionism and the Business Cycle | |
| Alessandro Barattieri; Matteo Cacciatore; Fabio Ghironi | |
| 发表日期 | 2018-02-26 |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We study the consequences of protectionism for macroeconomic fluctuations. First, using high-frequency trade policy data, we present fresh evidence on the dynamic effects of temporary trade barriers. Estimates from country-level and panel VARs show that protectionism acts as a supply shock, causing output to fall and inflation to rise in the short run. Moreover, protectionism has at best a small positive effect on the trade balance. Second, we build a small open economy model with firm heterogeneity, endogenous selection into trade, and nominal rigidity to study the channels through which protectionism affects aggregate fluctuations. The model successfully reproduces the VAR evidence and highlights the importance of aggregate investment dynamics and micro-level reallocations for the contractionary effects of tariffs. We then use the model to study scenarios where temporary trade barriers have been advocated as potentially beneficial, including recessions with binding constraints on monetary policy easing or in the presence of a fixed exchange rate. Our main conclusion is that, in all the scenarios we consider, protectionism is not an effective tool for macroeconomic stimulus. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; Monetary Policy ; International Economics ; Trade ; International Macroeconomics |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w24353 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/582025 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Alessandro Barattieri,Matteo Cacciatore,Fabio Ghironi. Protectionism and the Business Cycle. 2018. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w24353.pdf（931KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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