| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w24355 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 24355 |
| Is Fertility a Leading Economic Indicator? | |
| Kasey Buckles; Daniel Hungerman; Steven Lugauer | |
| 发表日期 | 2018-02-26 |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Many papers show that aggregate fertility is pro-cyclical over the business cycle. In this paper we do something else: using data on more than 100 million births and focusing on within-year changes in fertility, we show that for recent recessions in the United States, the growth rate for conceptions begins to fall several quarters prior to economic decline. Our findings suggest that fertility behavior is more forward-looking and sensitive to changes in short-run expectations about the economy than previously thought. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; Labor Economics ; Demography and Aging |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w24355 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/582027 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kasey Buckles,Daniel Hungerman,Steven Lugauer. Is Fertility a Leading Economic Indicator?. 2018. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w24355.pdf（1031KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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