| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w24368 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 24368 |
| Economic and Policy Uncertainty: Export Dynamics and the Value of Agreements | |
| Jeronimo Carballo; Kyle Handley; Nuno Limão | |
| 发表日期 | 2018-03-05 |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We examine the interaction of economic and policy uncertainty in a dynamic, heterogeneous firms model. Uncertainty about foreign income, trade protection and their interaction dampens export investment. This can be mitigated by trade agreements, which are particularly valuable in periods of increased demand volatility. We use firm data to establish new facts about U.S. export dynamics in 2003-2011 and estimate the model. We find a significant role for uncertainty in explaining the trade collapse in the 2008 crisis and partial recovery in its aftermath. Consistent with the model predictions, we find that the negative effects worked (1) through the extensive margin, (2) in destinations without preferential agreements with the U.S. (accounting for over half its trade) and (3) in industries with higher potential protection. U.S. exports to non-preferential markets would have been 6.5% higher under an agreement—equivalent to an 8% foreign GDP increase. These findings highlight and quantify the value of international policy commitments through agreements that mitigate uncertainty, particularly during downturns. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; Fiscal Policy ; International Economics ; Trade ; Globalization and International Relations |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w24368 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/582041 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jeronimo Carballo,Kyle Handley,Nuno Limão. Economic and Policy Uncertainty: Export Dynamics and the Value of Agreements. 2018. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w24368.pdf（1396KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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