| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w24373 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 24373 |
| Short-Run Pain, Long-Run Gain? Recessions and Technological Transformation | |
| Alexandr Kopytov; Nikolai Roussanov; Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel | |
| 发表日期 | 2018-03-05 |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Recent empirical evidence suggests that job polarization associated with skill-biased technological change accelerated during the Great Recession. We use a standard neoclassical growth framework to analyze how business cycle fluctuations interact with the long-run transition towards a skill-intensive technology. In the model, since adopting the new technology disrupts production, firms prefer to do so in recessions, when profits are low. Similarly, workers also tend to learn new skills during downturns. As a result, recessions are deeper during periods of technological transition, but they also speed up adoption of the new technology. We document evidence for these mechanisms in the data. Our calibrated model is able to match both the long-run downward trend in routine employment and the dramatic impact of the Great Recession. We also show that even in the absence of the Great Recession the routine employment share would have reached the observed level by the year 2012. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment ; Business Cycles |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w24373 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/582046 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Alexandr Kopytov,Nikolai Roussanov,Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel. Short-Run Pain, Long-Run Gain? Recessions and Technological Transformation. 2018. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w24373.pdf（1278KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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