| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w24521 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 24521 |
| Forward Guidance | |
| Marcus Hagedorn; Jinfeng Luo; Iourii Manovskii; Kurt Mitman | |
| 发表日期 | 2018-04-16 |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We assess the power of forward guidance—promises about future interest rates—as a monetary tool in a liquidity trap using a quantitative incomplete-markets model. Our results suggest the effects of forward guidance are negligible. A commitment to keep future nominal interest rates low for a few quarters—although macro indicators suggest otherwise—has only trivial effects on current output and employment. We explain theoretically why in complete markets models forward guidance is powerful—generating a “forward guidance puzzle”—and why this puzzle disappears in our model. We also clarify theoretically ambiguous conclusions from previous research about the effectiveness of forward guidance in incomplete and complete markets models. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment ; Business Cycles ; Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Policy |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w24521 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/582194 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Marcus Hagedorn,Jinfeng Luo,Iourii Manovskii,et al. Forward Guidance. 2018. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w24521.pdf（461KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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