| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w24549 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 24549 |
| Going With the Flows: New Borrowing, Debt Service and the Transmission of Credit Booms | |
| Mathias Drehmann; Mikael Juselius; Anton Korinek | |
| 发表日期 | 2018-04-30 |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Traditional economic models have had difficulty explaining the non-monotonic real effects of credit booms and, in particular, why they have predictable negative after-effects for up to a decade. We provide a systematic transmission mechanism by focusing on the flows of resources between borrowers and lenders, i.e. new borrowing and debt service. We construct the first cross-country dataset of these flows for a panel of household debt in 16 countries. We show that new borrowing increases economic activity but generates a pre-specified path of debt service that reduces future economic activity. The protracted response in debt service derives from two key analytic properties of credit booms: (i) new borrowing is auto-correlated and (ii) debt contracts are long term. We confirm these properties in the data and show that debt service peaks on average four years after credit booms and is associated with significantly lower output and higher crisis risk. Our results explain the transmission mechanism through which credit booms and busts generate non-monotonic and long-lasting aggregate demand effects and are, hence, crucial for macroeconomic stabilization policy. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Macroeconomic Models ; Money and Interest Rates ; Financial Economics |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w24549 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/582222 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Mathias Drehmann,Mikael Juselius,Anton Korinek. Going With the Flows: New Borrowing, Debt Service and the Transmission of Credit Booms. 2018. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w24549.pdf（654KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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