G2TT
来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w24549
来源IDWorking Paper 24549
Going With the Flows: New Borrowing, Debt Service and the Transmission of Credit Booms
Mathias Drehmann; Mikael Juselius; Anton Korinek
发表日期2018-04-30
出版年2018
语种英语
摘要Traditional economic models have had difficulty explaining the non-monotonic real effects of credit booms and, in particular, why they have predictable negative after-effects for up to a decade. We provide a systematic transmission mechanism by focusing on the flows of resources between borrowers and lenders, i.e. new borrowing and debt service. We construct the first cross-country dataset of these flows for a panel of household debt in 16 countries. We show that new borrowing increases economic activity but generates a pre-specified path of debt service that reduces future economic activity. The protracted response in debt service derives from two key analytic properties of credit booms: (i) new borrowing is auto-correlated and (ii) debt contracts are long term. We confirm these properties in the data and show that debt service peaks on average four years after credit booms and is associated with significantly lower output and higher crisis risk. Our results explain the transmission mechanism through which credit booms and busts generate non-monotonic and long-lasting aggregate demand effects and are, hence, crucial for macroeconomic stabilization policy.
主题Macroeconomics ; Macroeconomic Models ; Money and Interest Rates ; Financial Economics
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w24549
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/582222
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Mathias Drehmann,Mikael Juselius,Anton Korinek. Going With the Flows: New Borrowing, Debt Service and the Transmission of Credit Booms. 2018.
条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小 资源类型 版本类型 开放类型 使用许可
w24549.pdf(654KB)智库出版物 限制开放CC BY-NC-SA浏览
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[Mathias Drehmann]的文章
[Mikael Juselius]的文章
[Anton Korinek]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[Mathias Drehmann]的文章
[Mikael Juselius]的文章
[Anton Korinek]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[Mathias Drehmann]的文章
[Mikael Juselius]的文章
[Anton Korinek]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享
文件名: w24549.pdf
格式: Adobe PDF
此文件暂不支持浏览

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。