| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w24559 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 24559 |
| Tail and Center Rounding of Probabilistic Expectations in the Health and Retirement Study | |
| Pamela Giustinelli; Charles F. Manski; Francesca Molinari | |
| 发表日期 | 2018-04-30 |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | A growing number of surveys elicit respondents’ expectations for future events on a 0-100 scale of percent chance. These data reveal substantial heaping at multiples of 10 and 5 percent, suggesting that respondents round their reports. This paper studies the nature of rounding by analyzing response patterns across expectations questions and waves of the Health and Retirement Study. We discover a tendency by about half of the respondents to provide more refined responses in the tails of the scale than the center. Only about five percent provide more refined responses in the center than the tails. We find that rounding varies across question domains, which range from personal health to personal finances to macroeconomic events. We develop a two-stage framework to characterize person-specific rounding. The first stage uses observed responses to infer respondents’ rounding practice in each question domain and scale segment. The second stage replaces each original point response with an interval, representing the range of possible values of the respondent’s true latent belief implied by the degree of rounding inferred in the first stage. We study how the inferred rounding types in the first stage vary with respondent characteristics, including age and cognitive abilities. |
| 主题 | Econometrics ; Data Collection ; Microeconomics ; Households and Firms ; Economics of Information ; Health, Education, and Welfare ; Health ; Labor Economics ; Demography and Aging |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w24559 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/582232 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Pamela Giustinelli,Charles F. Manski,Francesca Molinari. Tail and Center Rounding of Probabilistic Expectations in the Health and Retirement Study. 2018. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w24559.pdf（655KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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