| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w24560 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 24560 |
| The Transmission of Commodity Price Super-Cycles | |
| Felipe Benguria; Felipe Saffie; Sergio Urzúa | |
| 发表日期 | 2018-04-30 |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We examine two key channels through which commodity price super-cycles affect the economy: a wealth channel, through which higher commodity prices increase domestic demand, and a cost channel, through which they induce wage increases. By exploiting regional variation in exposure to commodity price shocks and administrative firm-level data from Brazil, we empirically disentangle these transmission channels. We introduce a dynamic, two-region model with heterogeneous firms and workers to further quantify the mechanisms and evaluate welfare. A counterfactual economy in which commodity booms are purely endowment shocks experiences only 45% of the intersectoral labor reallocation between tradables and nontradables, and 40% of the within-tradables labor reallocation between domestic and exported production. Labor market frictions lead to persistent unemployment as the boom fades, and as a result the welfare gains obtained from a commodity super-cycle are 50% lower relative to those which would be obtained under a fully-flexible labor market. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; International Economics ; Trade ; International Macroeconomics |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w24560 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/582233 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Felipe Benguria,Felipe Saffie,Sergio Urzúa. The Transmission of Commodity Price Super-Cycles. 2018. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w24560.pdf（2661KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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