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来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w24560
来源IDWorking Paper 24560
The Transmission of Commodity Price Super-Cycles
Felipe Benguria; Felipe Saffie; Sergio Urzúa
发表日期2018-04-30
出版年2018
语种英语
摘要We examine two key channels through which commodity price super-cycles affect the economy: a wealth channel, through which higher commodity prices increase domestic demand, and a cost channel, through which they induce wage increases. By exploiting regional variation in exposure to commodity price shocks and administrative firm-level data from Brazil, we empirically disentangle these transmission channels. We introduce a dynamic, two-region model with heterogeneous firms and workers to further quantify the mechanisms and evaluate welfare. A counterfactual economy in which commodity booms are purely endowment shocks experiences only 45% of the intersectoral labor reallocation between tradables and nontradables, and 40% of the within-tradables labor reallocation between domestic and exported production. Labor market frictions lead to persistent unemployment as the boom fades, and as a result the welfare gains obtained from a commodity super-cycle are 50% lower relative to those which would be obtained under a fully-flexible labor market.
主题Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; International Economics ; Trade ; International Macroeconomics
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w24560
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/582233
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GB/T 7714
Felipe Benguria,Felipe Saffie,Sergio Urzúa. The Transmission of Commodity Price Super-Cycles. 2018.
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