| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w24626 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 24626 |
| Exploring the Impact of Artificial Intelligence: Prediction versus Judgment | |
| Ajay K. Agrawal; Joshua S. Gans; Avi Goldfarb | |
| 发表日期 | 2018-05-21 |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Based on recent developments in the field of artificial intelligence (AI), we examine what type of human labor will be a substitute versus a complement to emerging technologies. We argue that these recent developments reduce the costs of providing a particular set of tasks – prediction tasks. Prediction about uncertain states of the world is an input into decision-making. We show that prediction allows riskier decisions to be taken and this is its impact on observed productivity although it could also increase the variance of outcomes as well. We consider the role of human judgment in decision-making as prediction technology improves. Judgment is exercised when the objective function for a particular set of decisions cannot be described (i.e., coded). However, we demonstrate that better prediction impacts the returns to different types of judgment in opposite ways. Hence, not all human judgment will be a complement to AI. Finally, we show that humans will delegate some decisions to machines even when the decision would be superior with human input. |
| 主题 | Microeconomics ; Economics of Information ; Development and Growth ; Innovation and R& ; D |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w24626 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/582300 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ajay K. Agrawal,Joshua S. Gans,Avi Goldfarb. Exploring the Impact of Artificial Intelligence: Prediction versus Judgment. 2018. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w24626.pdf（240KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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