| 来源类型 | Working Paper
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| 规范类型 | 报告
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| DOI | 10.3386/w24643
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| 来源ID | Working Paper 24643
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| Practical Policy Evaluation |
| Narayana R. Kocherlakota
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| 发表日期 | 2018-05-28
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| 出版年 | 2018
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| 语种 | 英语
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| 摘要 | In the wake of the Lucas Critique, the study of appropriate macroeconomic policy has largely focused on the comparison of different regimes/rules. In practice, few policymakers are faced with making those kinds of choices. In this paper, I examine the problem of a policymaker making but one in a long sequence of similar decisions (like to raise or cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point). I model the policymaker as playing a dynamic game against a forward-looking private sector. My main result is that, under relatively weak conditions, the policymaker's optimal within-equilibrium response to the current state can be found by applying statistical regression methods to past macroeconomic data. Theory is only useful as a source of information about credible functional form restrictions on these regressions. Based on this result, I argue that macroeconomic policy evaluation intended to be of practical value should rely considerably less on putatively structural macroeconomic models and considerably more on regression-based approaches. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics
; Monetary Policy
; Fiscal Policy
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| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w24643
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| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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| 引用统计 |
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/582317
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Narayana R. Kocherlakota. Practical Policy Evaluation. 2018.
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文件名：
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w24643.pdf
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格式：
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Adobe PDF
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