| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w24776 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 24776 |
| Firm Performance and Macro Forecast Accuracy | |
| Mari Tanaka; Nicholas Bloom; Joel M. David; Maiko Koga | |
| 发表日期 | 2018-07-09 |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Ever since Keynes’ famous quote about animal spirits, there has been an interest in linking firms’ expectations and actions. However, empirical evidence has been limited due to a lack of firm-level panel data on expectations and outcomes. In this paper, we build such a dataset by combining a unique survey of Japanese firms’ GDP forecasts with company accounting data for 25 years for over 1,000 large Japanese firms. We find four main results. First, firms’ GDP forecasts are positively associated with their employment, investment, and output growth in the subsequent year. Second, both optimistic and pessimistic forecast errors lower profitability. Third, while over-optimistic forecasts lower measured productivity, over-pessimistic forecasts do not tend to have an effect on productivity. Overall, these results are stronger for firms whose performance is more sensitive to the state of macroeconomy. We show that a simple model of firm input choice under uncertainty and costly adjustment can rationalize there results. Finally, larger and more cyclically sensitive firms make more accurate forecasts, presumably reflecting a higher return to accuracy for these firms. More productive, older, and bank-owned firms also make more accurate forecasts, suggesting that forecasting ability is also linked to management ability, experience, and governance. Collectively, our results highlight the importance of firms’ forecasting ability for micro and macro performance. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Other ; Accounting, Marketing, and Personnel |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w24776 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/582450 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Mari Tanaka,Nicholas Bloom,Joel M. David,et al. Firm Performance and Macro Forecast Accuracy. 2018. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w24776.pdf（964KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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