| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w24785 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 24785 |
| Making Policies Matter: Voter Responses to Campaign Promises | |
| Cesi Cruz; Philip Keefer; Julien Labonne; Francesco Trebbi | |
| 发表日期 | 2018-07-09 |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Can campaign promises change voter behavior, even where clientelism and vote buying are pervasive? We elicit multidimensional campaign promises from political candidates in consecutive mayoral elections in the Philippines. Voters who are randomly informed about these promises rationally update their beliefs about candidates, along both policy and valence dimensions. Those who receive information about current promises are more likely to vote for candidates with policy promises closest to their own preferences. Those informed about current and past campaign promises reward incumbents who fulfilled their past promises; they perceive them to be more honest and competent. However, voters with clientelist ties to candidates respond weakly to campaign promises. A structural model allows us to disentangle information effects on beliefs and preferences by comparing actual incumbent vote shares with shares in counterfactual elections: both effects are substantial. Even in a clientelist democracy, counterfactual incumbent vote shares deviate more from actual shares when policy and valence play no role in campaigning than when vote-buying plays no role. Finally, a cost benefit analysis reveals that vote-buying is nevertheless more effective than information campaigns, explaining why candidates do not use them. |
| 主题 | Microeconomics ; Welfare and Collective Choice ; Other ; Economic Systems |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w24785 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/582459 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Cesi Cruz,Philip Keefer,Julien Labonne,et al. Making Policies Matter: Voter Responses to Campaign Promises. 2018. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w24785.pdf（1027KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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