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来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w24918
来源IDWorking Paper 24918
Evaluating the Economic Cost of Coastal Flooding
Klaus Desmet; Robert E. Kopp; Scott A. Kulp; Dávid Krisztián Nagy; Michael Oppenheimer; Esteban Rossi-Hansberg; Benjamin H. Strauss
发表日期2018-08-20
出版年2018
语种英语
摘要Sea-level rise and ensuing permanent coastal inundation will cause spatial shifts in population and economic activity over the next 200 years. Using a highly spatially disaggregated, dynamic model of the world economy that accounts for the dynamics of migration, trade, and innovation, this paper estimates the consequences of probabilistic projections of local sea-level changes under different emissions scenarios. Under an intermediate greenhouse gas concentration trajectory, permanent flooding is projected to reduce global real GDP by an average of 0.19% in present value terms, with welfare declining by 0.24% as people move to places with less attractive amenities. By the year 2200 a projected 1.46% of world population will be displaced. Losses in many coastal localities are more than an order of magnitude larger, with some low-lying urban areas particularly hard hit. When ignoring the dynamic economic adaptation of investment and migration to flooding, the loss in real GDP in 2200 increases from 0.11% to 4.5%. This shows the importance of including dynamic adaptation in future loss models.
主题International Economics ; Trade ; International Factor Mobility ; International Macroeconomics ; Environmental and Resource Economics ; Environment ; Regional and Urban Economics ; Regional Economics
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w24918
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/582592
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Klaus Desmet,Robert E. Kopp,Scott A. Kulp,et al. Evaluating the Economic Cost of Coastal Flooding. 2018.
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