| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w24984 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 24984 |
| Financial Markets, the Real Economy, and Self-fulfilling Uncertainties | |
| Jess Benhabib; Xuewen Liu; Pengfei Wang | |
| 发表日期 | 2018-09-10 |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Uncertainty in both financial markets and the real economy rises sharply during recessions. We develop a model of informational interdependence between financial markets and the real economy, linking uncertainty to information production and aggregate economic activities. We argue that there exists mutual learning between financial markets and the real economy. Their joint information productions determine both the allocative efficiency in the real sector and the market efficiency in the financial sector. The mutual learning creates a strategic complementarity between information production in the financial sector and that in the real sector. A self-fulfilling surge in financial uncertainty and real uncertainty can naturally arise when both sectors produce little information in anticipation of the other producing little information. At the same time, aggregate output falls as the real allocative efficiency deteriorates. In the extension to an OLG dynamic setting, our model characterizes self-fulfilling uncertainty traps with two steady-state equilibria and a two-stage economic crisis in transitional dynamics. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment ; Money and Interest Rates ; Financial Economics ; Financial Institutions |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w24984 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/582658 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jess Benhabib,Xuewen Liu,Pengfei Wang. Financial Markets, the Real Economy, and Self-fulfilling Uncertainties. 2018. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w24984.pdf（848KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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