| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w24987 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 24987 |
| Do You Know That I Know That You Know...? Higher-Order Beliefs in Survey Data | |
| Olivier Coibion; Yuriy Gorodnichenko; Saten Kumar; Jane Ryngaert | |
| 发表日期 | 2018-09-10 |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We implement a new survey of firms, focusing on their higher-order macroeconomic expectations. The survey provides a novel set of stylized facts regarding the relationship between first-order and higher-order expectations of economic agents, including how they adjust their beliefs in response to a variety of information treatments and how these adjustments affect their economic decisions. We show how these facts can be used to calibrate key parameters of noisy-information models with infinite regress as well as to test predictions made by this class of models. The survey also quantifies cognitive limits of agents in the form of level-k thinking. We find little evidence that this departure from infinite regress helps reconcile the data and theory. |
| 主题 | Econometrics ; Data Collection ; Microeconomics ; Economics of Information ; Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w24987 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/582661 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Olivier Coibion,Yuriy Gorodnichenko,Saten Kumar,et al. Do You Know That I Know That You Know...? Higher-Order Beliefs in Survey Data. 2018. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w24987.pdf（1425KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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