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来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w25079
来源IDWorking Paper 25079
Why Does Credit Growth Crowd Out Real Economic Growth?
Stephen G. Cecchetti; Enisse Kharroubi
发表日期2018-09-24
出版年2018
语种英语
摘要We examine the negative relationship between the rate of growth in credit and the rate of growth in output per worker. Using a panel of 20 countries over 25 years, we establish that there is a robust correlation: the higher the growth rate of credit, the lower the growth rate of output per worker. We then proceed to build a model in which this relationship arises from the fact that investment projects that are more risky have a higher return. As their borrowing grows more quickly over time, entrepreneurs turn to safer, hence lower return projects, thereby reducing aggregate productivity growth. We take this theoretical prediction to industry-level data and find that credit growth disproportionately harms output per worker growth in industries that have either less tangible assets or are more R&D intensive.
主题Microeconomics ; Behavioral Economics ; Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment ; Money and Interest Rates ; Development and Growth ; Growth and Productivity
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w25079
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/582752
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Stephen G. Cecchetti,Enisse Kharroubi. Why Does Credit Growth Crowd Out Real Economic Growth?. 2018.
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